THE SECOND SURPRISE: PHENOLOGY IS DECOUPLING FROM TEMPERATURE in California. It is becoming more and more difficult to predict harvest dates as was possible before climate change. How? Is the decoupling caused by the recent drought conditions in California, or is early bud break caused by asymmetric warming at play?
Dr. Wolkovich’s research program examines on how climate change shapes plants and plant communities, with a focus on shifts in the timing of seasonal development (e.g., budburst, flowering and fruit maturity)—known as phenology. Her research on winegrapes centers on how climate change affects different winegrape varieties. She combines data from across Europe and California to document changes in the timing of harvest and is developing phenological models of 12 major winegrape varieties to better predict future winegrowing regions. Her research benefits from an interdisciplinary team of collaborators from France, New Zealand, Spain and the United States. See www.temporalecology.org for more information.
- Wolkovich, E.M., B.I. Cook, and T.J. Davies. (In press). Progress towards an interdisciplinary science of plant phenology: Building predictions across space, time and species diversity. New Phytologist.
- Wolkovich, E.M., T.J. Davies, H. Schaefer, E.E. Cleland, B.I. Cook, S.E. Travers, C.G. Willis, and C.C. Davis. 2013. Phenology and plant invasions: Climate change contributes to exotic species’ success in temperature-limited systems. American Journal of Botany 100(7): 1407-1421.
- Pau, S., E.M. Wolkovich, B.I. Cook, C. Nytch, J. Regetz, J.K. Zimmerman, and S.J. Wright. 2013. Clouds and temperature drive dynamic changes in tropical flower production. Nature Climate Change 3: 838-842.
- Wolkovich, E.M. and 18 co-authors. 2012. Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change. Nature 485 (7399): 494-497.
- Wolkovich, E.M., J. Regetz, and M.I. O’Connor. 2012. Advances in global change research require open science by individual researchers. Global Change Biology 18(7): 2102-2110.
- Cook, B.I., E.M. Wolkovich, and C. Parmesan. 2012. Divergent responses to spring and winter warming explain community level flowering trends. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109(3): 9000-9005.
- Cleland, E.E., J.M. Allen, T.M. Crimmins, J.A. Dunne, S. Pau, S.E. Travers, E.S. Zavaleta, and E.M. Wolkovich. 2012. Phenological tracking enables positive species responses to climate change. Ecology 93(8): 1765-1771.
- Davies, T.J., N.B.J. Kraft, N. Salamin, and E.M. Wolkovich. 2012. Incompletely resolved phylogenetic trees inflate estimates of phylogenetic conservatism. Ecology 93(2): 242-247.