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Future Asymmetric Warming Over Coastal California – What Can We Predict?

FIRST SURPRISE: THE PACIFIC OCEAN IS PRODUCING ASYMMETRIC TEMPERATURES IN WINE COUNTRY. Sea Surface Temperature at 35º N Latitude increased by 0.72ºC from 1951 to 2000. Growing Season Temperature increased 0.79ºC in St. Helena over the same period (18.5 to 19.3ºC). It is not surprising that most of the change occurred at night — increasing by 1.4°C (9.1ºC to 10.5ºC). What is the effect of asymmetric change on phenology: bud break, florasion, verasion and harvest?

The transport of atmospheric water vapor from a warmer Pacific Ocean is producing the asymmetric changes. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) at 35º N Latitude is correlated in the statistical plots of all temperature indices: Annual average increase in SST is 0.72ºC fro 1951 to 2000. Growing Season Temperature 0.79ºC in St. Helena from 1951-2000. The surprise is most of the change occurred at night, the magnitude is much larger 1.4ºC.  Climatic changes over coastal California from 1951 to 1997 may have benefited the premium wine industry, as seen in higher quality wines.

What is the effect of asymmetric change on phenology: bud break, florasion, verasion and harvest?

June 7 @ 13:30

1:30 pm

– 2:20 pm

(50′)

Dr. Daniel R. Cayan